000			02812pam a2200253 a 4500
001			2010045037
003			DLC
005			20181201161632.0
008			101123s2011 ctu b 001 0 eng
010			_a 2010045037
020			_a9780300169690 (hbk. : alk. paper)
020			_a0300169698 (hbk. : alk. paper)
040			_aDLC _cDLC _dTnLvILS
042			_apcc
050	0	0	_aQA279.5 _b.M415 2011
082	0	0	_a519.5/42 _222
100	1		_aMcGrayne, Sharon Bertsch.
245	1	4	_aThe theory that would not die : _bhow Bayes' rule cracked the enigma code, hunted down Russian submarines, & emerged triumphant from two centuries of controversy / _cSharon Bertsch McGrayne.
260			_aNew Haven : _bYale University Press, _cc2011.
300			_axiii, 320 p. ; _c25 cm.
504			_aIncludes bibliographical references (p. 275-306) and index.
505	0		_aEnlightenment and the anti-Bayesian reaction. Causes in the air ; The man who did everything ; Many doubts, few defenders -- Second World War era. Bayes goes to war ; Dead and buried again -- The glorious revival. Arthur Bailey ; From tool to theology ; Jerome Cornfield, lung cancer, and heart attacks ; There's always a first time ; 46,656 varieties -- To prove its worth. Business decisions ; Who wrote The Federalist? The cold warrior ; Three Mile Island ; The Navy searches -- Victory. Eureka! ; Rosetta stones -- Appendixes. Dr. Fisher's casebook ; Applying Baye's Rule to mammograms and breast cancer.
520			_a"Bayes' rule appears to be a straightforward, one-line theorem: by updating our initial beliefs with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, it is an elegant statement about learning from experience. To its opponents, it is subjectivity run amok. In the first-ever account of Bayes' rule for general readers, Sharon Bertsch McGrayne explores this controversial theorem and the human obsessions surrounding it. She traces its discovery by an amateur mathematician in the 1740s through its development into roughly its modern form by French scientist Pierre Simon Laplace. She reveals why respected statisticians rendered it professionally taboo for 150 years--at the same time that practitioners relied on it to solve crises involving great uncertainty and scanty information, even breaking Germany's Enigma code during World War II, and explains how the advent of off-the-shelf computer technology in the 1980s proved to be a game-changer. Today, Bayes' rule is used everywhere from DNA de-coding to Homeland Security. Drawing on primary source material and interviews with statisticians and other scientists, The Theory That Would Not Die is the riveting account of how a seemingly simple theorem ignited one of the greatest controversies of all time"-- _cProvided by publisher.
650		7	_aStatistics. _2Sears
999			_c1548 _d1548